Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DANNY-15 in Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat from 18 Aug 2015 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2015 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANNY-15

in Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DANNY-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (24 Aug 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Dominica)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 13.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Aug 2015 15:00	157	No people	No people
2	18 Aug 2015 21:00	157	No people	No people
3	19 Aug 2015 03:00	167	No people	No people
4	19 Aug 2015 09:00	167	No people	No people
5	19 Aug 2015 15:00	148	No people	No people	Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Montserrat
6	19 Aug 2015 21:00	139	No people	No people	Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
7	20 Aug 2015 03:00	130	No people	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
8	20 Aug 2015 09:00	120	No people	No people	Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat
9	20 Aug 2015 15:00	120	No people	400 thousand	Antigua and Barbuda, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saint Kitts and Nevis
10	20 Aug 2015 21:00	139	No people	No people	Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
11	21 Aug 2015 03:00	139	No people	No people	Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
12	21 Aug 2015 09:00	148	No people	No people	Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla
13	21 Aug 2015 15:00	93	No people	No people	Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.6, -36.5
2	18 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	10.9, -37.5
3	19 Aug 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.2, -38.8
4	19 Aug 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.3, -40.2
5	19 Aug 2015 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.2, -41.1
6	19 Aug 2015 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.5, -42
7	20 Aug 2015 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.1, -42.7
8	20 Aug 2015 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.2, -43.7
9	20 Aug 2015 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	12.5, -44.8
10	20 Aug 2015 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	13, -45.7
11	21 Aug 2015 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	13.4, -46.6
12	21 Aug 2015 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	13.7, -47.4
13	21 Aug 2015 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14, -48.2
13	22 Aug 2015 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14.5, -49.6
13	22 Aug 2015 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	15.1, -51.7
13	23 Aug 2015 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.5, -54
13	23 Aug 2015 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	410000 people	16, -56.4	Montserrat
13	24 Aug 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	3.9 million people	17, -61.5	Montserrat
13	25 Aug 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	11.9 million people	18, -66	Haiti
13	26 Aug 2015 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	19.5, -71	Haiti

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Guadeloupe	340000 people
Antigua & Barbuda	88000 people
Montserrat	4700 people
St. Kitts & Nevis	31000 people
Anguilla	14000 people
British Virgin Is.	30000 people
Virgin Is.	97000 people
Puerto Rico	3.6 million people
Dominican Republic	8.7 million people
Haiti	50000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Guadeloupe	Guadeloupe
Antigua & Barbuda	Antigua and Barbuda
Montserrat	Montserrat
St. Kitts & Nevis	Saint Kitts and Nevis
Anguilla	Anguilla
British Virgin Is.	Virgin Islands, British
Virgin Is.	Virgin Islands, U.S.
Humacao	Puerto Rico
Guayama	Puerto Rico
Bayamon	Puerto Rico
San Juan	Puerto Rico
Arecibo	Puerto Rico
Ponce	Puerto Rico
Mayag?ez	Puerto Rico
Aguadilla	Puerto Rico
La Altagracia	Dominican Republic
La Romana	Dominican Republic
El Seibo	Dominican Republic
San Pedro de Macor¡s	Dominican Republic
Hato Major	Dominican Republic
Samana	Dominican Republic
Monte Plata	Dominican Republic
Distrito Nacional	Dominican Republic
Santo Domingo	Dominican Republic
Duarte	Dominican Republic
Maria Trinidad S	Dominican Republic
Sanchez Ramirez	Dominican Republic
San Cristobal	Dominican Republic
Peravia	Dominican Republic
Monsenor Novel	Dominican Republic
Espaillat	Dominican Republic
La Vega	Dominican Republic
Salcedo	Dominican Republic
Azua	Dominican Republic
Puerto Plata	Dominican Republic
Santiago	Dominican Republic
San Juan	Dominican Republic
Valverde	Dominican Republic
Santiago Rodrigu	Dominican Republic
Monte Cristi	Dominican Republic
La Estrelleta	Dominican Republic
Dajabon	Dominican Republic
Centre	Haiti
Nord-Est	Haiti

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Moule		Guadeloupe	City	-
Pointe-à-Pitre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Capesterre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Saint-Claude		Guadeloupe	City	10000 people
Saint John's		Antigua and Barbuda	Capital	22000 people
Plymouth	Saint Anthony	Montserrat	Capital	no people
Newcastle		St. Kitts and Nevis	City	<1000 people
Charlestown		St. Kitts and Nevis	City	1500 people
Basseterre		St. Kitts and Nevis	Capital	13000 people
Gustavia		Guadeloupe	City	-
Philipsburg		Netherlands Antilles	City	6400 people
The Valley		Anguilla	Capital	1400 people
Road Town		British Virgin Islands	Capital	8300 people
Charlotte Amalie		Virgin Islands	Capital	10000 people
Carolina	Carolina	Puerto Rico	Major city	170000 people
San Juan	San Juan	Puerto Rico	Capital	420000 people
Guaynabo	Guaynabo	Puerto Rico	City	79000 people
Bayamon	Bayamon	Puerto Rico	City	200000 people
Ponce	Ponce	Puerto Rico	City	160000 people
Higüey	La Altagracia	Dominican Republic	City	66000 people
La Romana	La Romana	Dominican Republic	City	210000 people
El Seibo	El Seíbo	Dominican Republic	City	23000 people
San Pedro de Macorís	San Pedro de Macorís	Dominican Republic	City	160000 people
Hato Mayor	Hato Major	Dominican Republic	City	36000 people
Consuelo	San Pedro de Macorís	Dominican Republic	City	27000 people
El Valle	Hato Major	Dominican Republic	City	-
Sabana de la Mar	Hato Major	Dominican Republic	City	14000 people
Boca Chica	Santo Domingo	Dominican Republic	City	-
Andrés	Santo Domingo	Dominican Republic	City	-
Sánchez	Samaná	Dominican Republic	City	13000 people
Monte Plata	Monte Plata	Dominican Republic	City	15000 people
Santo Domingo	Distrito Nacional	Dominican Republic	Capital	2.2 million people
Nagua	María Trinidad Sánchez	Dominican Republic	City	34000 people
Bajos de Haina	San Cristóbal	Dominican Republic	City	67000 people
Pimentel	Duarte	Dominican Republic	City	9500 people
Cotuí	Sánchez Ramírez	Dominican Republic	City	53000 people
Río San Juan	Espaillat	Dominican Republic	City	-
San Francisco de Macorís	Duarte	Dominican Republic	City	130000 people
Bonao	Monsenor Novel	Dominican Republic	City	73000 people
La Vega	La Vega	Dominican Republic	City	100000 people
Moca	Espaillat	Dominican Republic	City	62000 people
Constanza	La Vega	Dominican Republic	City	29000 people
Santiago	Santiago	Dominican Republic	City	550000 people
Puerto Plata	Puerto Plata	Dominican Republic	City	120000 people
Imbert	Puerto Plata	Dominican Republic	City	7900 people
Mao	Valverde	Dominican Republic	City	47000 people
Santiago Rodríguez	Santiago Rodríguez	Dominican Republic	City	-
Lucas Evangelista de Peña	Monti Cristi	Dominican Republic	City	-
Loma de Cabrera	Dajabón	Dominican Republic	City	6600 people
Dajabón	Dajabón	Dominican Republic	City	16000 people
Quanaminthe	Nord-Est	Haiti	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
La Desirade Les Galets	DSD	unknown				0
St. Francois	SFC	unknown				0
Le Raizet	PTP	11	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11400
Basse-Terre Baillif	BBR	unknown				0
V C Bird International	ANU	19	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Barbuda Codrington	BBQ	unknown				0
W H Bramble (Abandoned)		12				0
Montserrat Blackburne	MNI	unknown				0
Newcastle	NEV	8	Civ.	Paved	No	4000
Golden Rock	SKB	52	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8000
St. Barthelemy	SBH	unknown	Civ.	Paved	No	2100
F D Roosevelt	EUX	38	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4200
Grand Case	CCE	2	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Wallblake	AXA	33	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3600
Prinses Juliana	SXM	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7000
North Sound Virgin Gorda	NSX	unknown				0
Virgin Gorda	VIJ	4	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Beef Island	EIS	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3600
Christiansted Harbor- SSB		unknown				0
Alexander Hamilton	STX	19	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7600
St. John	SJF	unknown				0
Cruz Bay		unknown				0
Stouffer Grand Beach Resort		38				0
Frenchman's Reef		6				0
H.S. Truman	STT	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7000
Benjamin Rivera Noriega	CPX	15				0
Camp Garcia Vieques		14				0
Vieques	VQS	14	Civ.	Paved	No	3400
Roosevelt Roads Ns	NRR	12	Mil.	Paved	Yes	11000
Fajardo Harbor		unknown				0
Diego Jimenez Torres	FAJ	20	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Humacao		10				0
Boqueron		114				0
Patillas		3				0
Luis Munoz Marin International	SJU	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10000
Prasa-Barbosa		50				0
State Government Number One		82				0
Prtc Office Building		53				0
Isla Grande	SIG	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5300
Rexach Office Building		18				0
Bayamon Regional Hospital		34				0
Baxter-Aibonito		560				0
Prasa - La Plata		110				0
Santa Isabel		8				0
Dorado		23				0
Orocovis Health Center		523				0
Fort Allen		6				0
Mercedita	PSE	9	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6900
Orama-Layuya		446				0
Antonio Nery Juarbe Pol	ARE	7				0
Parguera		10				0
Baxter-San German		64				0
Lajas Airpark		9				0
Boqueron		1				0
Labadie		137				0
Cullingford Field		4				0
Sabalos Ward		10				0
Eugenio Maria de Hostos	MAZ	9	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Borinquen	BQN	72	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11700
Punta Cana	PUJ	9	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100
La Romana	LRM	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Sabana de La Mar	SNX	unknown				0
Arroyo Barril		35				0
De Las Americas International	SDQ	18	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11000
San Isidro AB		34	Mil.	Paved	No	7000
Herrera	HEX	66	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4100
Angelina Cotui		54				0
Santiago Municipal	STI	182	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5000
Constanza	COZ	1198	Civ.	Paved	No	5300
La Union	POP	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100
San Juan de la M.	SJM	unknown				0
Dajabon		63	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Saint Louis		Guadeloupe
Pointe-a-Pitre	GPPTP	Guadeloupe
Port Louis		Guadeloupe
Parham Harbour		Antigua and Barbuda
Saint Johns	AGSJO	Antigua and Barbuda
Barbuda	AGBBQ	Antigua and Barbuda
Plymouth		Montserrat
Charlestown	KNNEV	Saint Kitts and Nevis
Basseterre	KNBAS	Saint Kitts and Nevis
Gustavia	GPGUS	Guadeloupe
Oranjestad		Netherlands Antilles
Philipsburg	ANPHI	Netherlands Antilles
Marigot		Guadeloupe
Blowing Point	AIBLP	Anguilla
Virgin Gorda Island		British Virgin Islands
Christiansted	VICTD	Virgin Islands
Hovic	VIHOC	Virgin Islands
Limetree Bay	VILIB	Virgin Islands
Road Harbour & Port Purcell		British Virgin Islands
Frederiksted	VIFRD	Virgin Islands
Cruz Bay		Virgin Islands
Charlotte Amalie	VISTT	Virgin Islands
Culebra		Puerto Rico
Isabel Segunda		Puerto Rico
Ensenada Honda		Puerto Rico
Fajardo		Puerto Rico
Naguabo		Puerto Rico
Puerto de Humacao		Puerto Rico
Yabucoa	PRPYA	Puerto Rico
Maunabo		Puerto Rico
Arroyo		Puerto Rico
Las Mareas		Puerto Rico
San Juan	PRSJU	Puerto Rico
Las Mareas (Guayama)	PRLAM	Puerto Rico
Ponce	PRPSE	Puerto Rico
Guayanilla	PRGUY	Puerto Rico
Arecibo	PRARE	Puerto Rico
Guanica Harbour	PRGUX	Puerto Rico
Mayaguez	PRMAZ	Puerto Rico
Aguadilla	PRBQN	Puerto Rico
Mona Island	PROIS	Puerto Rico
Cape Engano		Dominican Republic
La Romana	DOLRM	Dominican Republic
San Pedro de Macoris	DOSPM	Dominican Republic
Santa Barbara de Samana		Dominican Republic
Puerto Botado		Dominican Republic
Boca Chica	DOBCC	Dominican Republic
Sanchez	DOSNZ	Dominican Republic
Santo Domingo	DOSDQ	Dominican Republic
Rio Haina	DOHAI	Dominican Republic
Sosua		Dominican Republic
Puerto Plata	DOPOP	Dominican Republic

Dams

Dam Name	River	Year
Patillas	Rio Grande de Patillas	1914
Carite	La Plata	1913
La Plata	La Plata	1974
Toa Vaca Dam	Toa Vaca	1972
Caonillas	Caonillas	1948
Dos Bocas	Rio Grande de Arecibo	1942
Guajataca	Guajataca	1928
Hatillo	Yuna	1984
Jiguey	Nizao	1992
Rincon	Jima	1978
Tavera	Yaque del Norte	1974
Bao	Bao	1985
Moncion	Mao	n/a
Sabaneta	San Juan	1981

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Baie-Mahault, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 24 Aug 2015 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 24 of 24 Aug 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Baie-Mahault	Guadeloupe	0.2
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Pointe-a-Pitre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Sainte-Anne	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Bas Vent	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Saint-Louis	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 13:00	Grand-Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 12:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Basse-Terre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Saint-Claude	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 14:00	Le Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 12:00	Marigot	Dominica	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 15:00	La Pointe-Noire	Guadeloupe	0.1
	24 Aug 2015 15:00	Bouillante	Guadeloupe	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.